 troubles go far beyond a mere shortage of dollars. According to the brief, the country’s entire exchange rate system has lost integrity—crippling businesses and distorting the real economy.){kind=link}
Policy think tank IMANI Africa has released a damning policy brief warning that Ghana’s ongoing foreign exchange (FX) troubles go far beyond a mere shortage of dollars. According to the brief, the country’s entire exchange rate system has lost integrity—crippling businesses and distorting the real economy.
IMANI’s Vice President, Bright Simons, said the cedi’s perceived stability is more cosmetic than real, driven by artificial headline figures rather than true economic fundamentals.
“It appears the economic managers are rather fixing the cedi in headlines, but not in fundamentals,” Simons stated on Monday.
The think tank’s findings paint a troubling picture of Ghana’s forex regime, where the Bank of Ghana’s official interbank rate significantly diverges from actual market rates. Banks, according to IMANI, only conduct small volumes of FX trade at the official rate. Meanwhile, importers and businesses are forced to access dollars through backchannels at rates GH¢1 or more above the benchmark.
This dual-market structure, IMANI argues, has created a situation where there is one rate “for press conferences” and another, harsher one for real-world transactions.
“What we now have is a two-tier FX system: a nice-sounding rate for the headlines, and a real, painful rate for businesses trying to stay afloat,” the policy brief noted.
The implications, according to IMANI, are serious. The distortion encourages speculation, drives businesses into grey markets, and amplifies economic uncertainty. Simons warns that unless systemic issues are addressed, dollar rationing and shadow pricing will persist.
IMANI’s solution is clear: Ghana must focus on strengthening the real economy, not just managing currency optics.
“A strong currency is backed by a strong economy,” Simons emphasized. “That means increasing productivity and producing value-added goods and services the world wants.”
The think tank called for a strategic shift from exporting raw commodities like cocoa, gold, and cashew to value-added manufacturing and tradable services. It urged the government to invest in mechanized agriculture, modern infrastructure, industrial innovation, skills development, and technology transfer.
“Without structural transformation, Ghana will continue to export raw goods and import everything else—a model that locks us into long-term currency weakness,” IMANI warned.
Rather than simply cutting imports, IMANI proposes “smarter importation” that supports domestic productivity. That includes prioritizing capital goods, supporting local firms that replace low-value imports, and diversifying the country’s export mix.
“The goal is not to stop imports but to import smarter,” Simons explained. “Trade surpluses from a healthy, diversified base are what give currencies real strength.”
IMANI also raised concerns about transparency and accountability in Ghana’s industrial policy. The brief cited opaque financing schemes by state institutions like EXIM Bank, pointing to examples such as Darko Farms and Ekumfi Juice, where millions have reportedly been spent with little public insight or performance data.
“Publish program performance data, create feedback loops to adapt and improve, and encourage independent scrutiny,” Simons urged. “Without learning and transparency, we keep recycling the same broken tools under new names with the same disappointing outcomes.”
In a sobering conclusion, IMANI argued that the core issue is Ghana’s broken political economy. Politicians chase short-term optics—like a stable cedi in the media—while ignoring long-term solutions that require bold structural reform.
“Citizens cry ‘fix the cedi’ without demanding the policies that actually strengthen it. Politicians, in turn, offer shortcuts,” the brief said. “The result is a currency strong in speeches but weak at the counter.”
IMANI’s latest policy brief is a clear call for Ghana to shift its focus from managing FX symptoms to addressing the root causes of economic fragility. For the cedi to truly stabilize, the think tank insists, the country must align its economic strategy with market realities, improve transparency in public programs, and build real competitiveness.