 forthcoming presidential flagbearer election, citing his strong standing within the party, economic credentials, and extensive internal support.){kind=link}
The Governance, Religion and Policy Think Tank, IGER Africa, has projected a victory for former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) forthcoming presidential flagbearer election, citing his strong standing within the party, economic credentials, and extensive internal support.
In an analysis grounded in its research on political behaviour and religion in Ghana, IGER-Africa notes that Dr. Bawumia is well-positioned to clinch the NPP nomination ahead of the 2028 general elections, but cautions that broader religious dynamics could complicate his prospects at the national level.
According to the think tank, Dr. Bawumia’s long tenure as Vice President since 2017 has entrenched him as a central figure in the NPP’s governance record, particularly in the areas of economic management and digital innovation. His technocratic image and association with flagship government programmes are said to resonate strongly with party delegates, for whom competence and experience are critical considerations.
IGER-Africa further points to Dr. Bawumia’s background as an economist as a key advantage in the intra-party contest. His involvement in fiscal and monetary policy, the think tank argues, has earned him credibility among party members who prioritise economic growth and stability.
The report also highlights the importance of party structure and internal networks in NPP primaries, noting that Dr. Bawumia’s deep roots within the party’s organisational machinery enhance his chances under the delegate-based system. In addition, his strong support base in the Northern regions, where his ethnic background carries significant appeal, is considered a crucial asset in the flagbearer race.
However, while projecting a likely victory for Dr. Bawumia in the NPP primaries, IGER-Africa draws attention to what it describes as more complex religious dynamics that could shape the outcome of the 2028 general election.
Ghana is a religiously diverse country, with Christians constituting about 71 per cent of the population and Muslims approximately 18 per cent. IGER-Africa’s research indicates that religious identity, though often subtle, can influence voter behaviour and political perceptions, particularly in closely contested national elections.
The think tank notes that as a Muslim candidate, Dr. Bawumia may face challenges in appealing beyond his core party base if sections of the Christian majority electorate perceive him as less representative of their values or interests. It adds that political opponents could seek to exploit religious sentiments to mobilise voters, potentially polarising the electorate along faith-based lines.
IGER-Africa also warns that candidates’ religious identities can become focal points during campaigns, shaping narratives around inclusion and representation. In this context, the think tank stresses the importance of interfaith-sensitive messaging and a unifying campaign strategy that speaks to both Christian and Muslim voters.
In its conclusion, IGER-Africa maintains that Dr. Bawumia remains the frontrunner to secure the NPP’s presidential ticket, given his experience, expertise and party support. Nonetheless, it emphasises that success in the 2028 general election will depend largely on his ability to navigate Ghana’s religious landscape carefully and project an inclusive national vision capable of attracting broad cross-religious support.