Institute of Political Studies Dissects
The NDC Government’s “Big Push” project portfolio targets 49+ projects over the next four years to improve road infrastructure.The “Big Push” initiative’s targeted projects breakdown is categorized to address both new and existing infrastructure development:
- 32 New Road Projects
- 13 Abandoned Projects
- 4 Projects At Various Stages of Completion
The NDC Government plan to roll of a USD 10 billion (GHS 124 billion) targeted investment towards the “Big Push” program for strategic infrastructural development exposes a fundamental vulnerability in the “Big Push” initiative. Based on USD 10 billion targeted investment, the required annual target between 2025 to 2028 is USD 2.5 billion (GHS 31 billion).
The “Big Push” program projected budgetary allocation against the required annual target (2025 – 2028). Source: 2025 Annual Budget Statement and Economic Policy
Year 2025:
Required: 31.0 GHS billion
Actual: 13.8 GHS billion
Year 2026:
Required: 31.0 GHS billion
Actual: 17.1 GHS billion
Year 2027:
Required: 31.0 GHS billion
Actual: 19.2 GHS billion
Year 2028:
Required: 31.0 GHS billion
Actual: 21.1 GHS billion
The analysis reveals a direct disconnect between the required annual target and the projected budgetary allocation throughout the implementation period, 2025 to 2028.
Against the required annual target of GHS 31.0 billion, the projected budgetary allocations fall short by GHS 17.2 billion (55.5%) in 2025, GHS 13.9 billion (44.8%) in 2026, GHS 11.8 billion (38.1%) in 2027, and GHS 9.9 billion (31.9%) in 2028, exposing the fundamental vulnerability in the “Big Push Program”.
On July 31, 2025 parliament approved that all oil revenues and mineral royalties accrued to the budget be dedicated to the “Big Push” program. In the 2025 Budget Statement and Economic Policy of the government, projected petroleum revenue for the 2025 fiscal year was USD 1.011 billion.
The Bank of Ghana reports that the total amount of petroleum revenue for H1 2025 was USD 370.62 million representing 36.65 percent of the projected revenue for 2025.
The “Big Push” program is designed to be financed through a composite funding structure; the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA) of 65% which is sourced from petroleum revenues and the remaining 35% from Mineral Royalties.
For the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), the Annual Budget Funding Amount (the main funding source for the “Big Push”) received a total amount of USD 148.22 million representing only 25.87 percent of the projected allocation to ABFA for 2025 (USD 573.08 million). It is worthy of note that for both the Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, the target ABFA of USD 143.27 million for each quarter was not attained.
The combined revenue target for H1 2025 was USD 286.54 million, meaning the ABFA which is the larger funding source for the “Big Push” fell short by 48.25%, that is USD 138.32 million in H1 2025. Source: PIAC 2025 Semi-Annual Report
- In Q1 2025, the actual revenue of USD76.76 million fell short of the USD 143.27 million target, resulting in a variance of USD -66.51 million.
- In Q2 2025, actual receipts were USD 71.46 million against a target of USD 143.27 million, resulting in a variance of USD -71.81 million.
- For the first half of 2025 (H1 Total), the cumulative revenue was USD 148.22 million against a target of USD 286.54 million resulting in a variance of USD -138.32 million.
The “Big Push” initiative now faces a severe trilemma, caught between three converging crises that threaten the project’s viability:
- Declining crude oil production.
- Plummeting gas production; and
- Unexpected 56% drop in petroleum revenue in H1 2025.