Research released by Professor Smart Sarpong, Associate Professor of Statistics at the Kumasi Technical University, indicates that the Vice President and Presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is leading with 49.1% in the upcoming 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s closest contender, the NDC’s John Mahama has 45.8% of the vote while Nana Kwame Bediako is likely to secure 2.2%. Mr John Alan John Kyeremateng on the other hand is predicted to place 4th by securing just 1.2% of the vote

The comprehensive survey, conducted across 4,272 communities in all 276 constituencies and involving 99,355 respondents, highlights Dr Bawumia’s clear edge in critical regions such as Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western.

While Mahama maintains substantial backing in the other nine regions, his support is insufficient to close the gap. In addition to predicting a strong presidential outcome for Bawumia, the poll also forecasts a parliamentary majority for the NPP.

Professor Sarpong’s data indicates that the NPP could secure at least 148 seats in Parliament, with 128 considered “safe.” The NDC is projected to hold 92 safe seats, while 56 constituencies remain highly competitive.

These battleground seats are expected to split evenly between the two major parties, cementing the NPP’s parliamentary majority.

Professor Sarpong, whose accurate predictions in the 2020 elections earned him national recognition, notes that Bawumia’s leadership and the NPP’s political strategies have resonated strongly with voters.

His analysis suggests that the party is poised for both a decisive presidential victory and significant gains in Parliament. 

 With sixteen (15) days to election day, the poll underscores growing voter confidence in the NPP, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election outcome.