As we approach the Trump vs Harris showdown in the 2024 US elections, there is a palpable sense of uncertainty among voters. Both leading candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, are locked in a tight race. Polling averages in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show margins of less than a point, signaling a historic electoral battle. If these trends hold until Election Day, it would mark the first time in over 50 years that any of these states had final average margins within a point.
Since Harris entered the race in July, the margins in these states have remained consistently close. Neither Trump nor Harris has led by 5 points or more in any of these areas, mirroring the national polling trends. This election marks the first time in over 60 years that no candidate has led by 5 points or more nationally at any point in the race.
Many Republicans are hopeful that the close polling indicates a potential blowout win for Trump next month. The former president significantly outperformed polls in both 2016 and 2020. If he were to do so again, he could easily surpass 300 electoral votes.
However, if Trump wins, he would be the second least-liked candidate to do so since polling began in the mid-20th century, with the only presidential winner who was less popular being Trump himself in 2016. It’s also important to note that Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterms, despite many macro indicators pointing in their favor.
An intriguing factor in the Trump vs Harris showdown is the uncertainty surrounding registered Republicans’ willingness to cast ballots for Trump. Recent polling, such as the New York Times/Siena College survey in Pennsylvania, suggests that Harris may secure a higher share of Democrats than Trump will among Republicans. Given that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Pennsylvania, such a scenario would likely favor Harris.
The dynamics of this race are further complicated by significant shifts in voting patterns since four years ago. Trump is poised to achieve one of the best performances for a Republican presidential nominee among Black voters in years, particularly among young Black men. Conversely, Harris appears to be gaining ground among White women, outperforming any Democratic presidential nominee this century. While her gains aren’t as pronounced as Trump’s among Black voters, White women constitute a larger segment of the electorate, suggesting that these shifts might offset each other.
Ultimately, the Trump vs Harris showdown will likely hinge on the undecided voters. More than two-thirds of likely voters believe this is the most important election of their lifetime, with 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris’ backers agreeing. Ironically, only 24% of undecided voters share this sentiment, highlighting the unpredictable nature of this election.
